SWODY2
SPC AC 030524
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1224 AM CDT WED NOV 03 2010
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...FL...
MODEST HEIGHT FALLS WILL OVERSPREAD THE FL PENINSULA EARLY IN THE
PERIOD AS A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE OH/TN VALLEY FORCING
THE CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO SHORTWAVE EWD. THIS LOW LATITUDE FEATURE
WILL COMPETE SOMEWHAT WITH CYCLOGENESIS THAT IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST...ULTIMATELY REDUCING LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG TRAILING FRONTAL ZONE SWWD ACROSS NRN FL
INTO THE NERN GOM. AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT...A WEAK SFC
WAVE OR POSSIBLY JUST A PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE ZONE IS STILL
FORECAST TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA BY 04/21Z.
THIS PRE-FRONTAL FEATURE SHOULD ENCOURAGE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THOUGH INSTABILITY IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE
WEAK-MODEST...SBCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AND SOME SUPPORT FROM
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE...A FEW STORMS MAY ATTAIN NEAR-SEVERE LEVELS OR
PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING
WINDS. AT THIS TIME WILL MAINTAIN LOW PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE
GIVEN THE MODEST INSTABILITY AND SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE.
..DARROW.. 11/03/2010
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