DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 031951
SWODY1
SPC AC 031950

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0250 PM CDT WED NOV 03 2010

VALID 032000Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

--- UPDATES ---
NARROW CORRIDOR OF MRGL SFC-BASED INSTABILITY CORRESPONDS TO SFC
MOIST AXIS ANALYZED FROM MOUTH OF MS RIVER NWWD TOWARD
HEZ...COMBINING WITH DIABATIC HEATING THAT ALREADY HAS TAKEN PLACE
TO YIELD MLCAPE 200-400 J/KG. ALTHOUGH CINH IS SMALL IN THIS
CORRIDOR...LITTLE OR NO CONVERGENCE IS EVIDENT AMIDST SFC WINDS
GENERALLY AOB 5 KT. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS
STILL MAY DEVELOP...CONVECTIVE LOW-CLOUD TRENDS ON VIS IMAGERY
APPEAR TO HAVE LEVELED OFF. DEEPEST TCU AND SHOWERS ARE EVIDENT
BETWEEN HEZ-IER...NEAR RELATIVE MIN IN DEEP-LAYER SHEAR COMPARED TO
AREAS SE OF BTR. SVR POTENTIAL THEREFORE APPEARS TOO
CONDITIONAL/WEAK TO MAINTAIN AOA 5% PROBABILITIES.

MEANWHILE...BANDS OF CONVECTION CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY EWD OVER GULF
ADJACENT TO WRN/CENTRAL PANHANDLE. A FEW TSTMS WITH THESE BANDS MAY
PRODUCE STG TO MARGINALLY DAMAGING GUSTS...THOUGH LACK OF MORE
ROBUST INSTABILITY PRECLUDES ORGANIZED SVR THREAT.

..EDWARDS.. 11/03/2010

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT WED NOV 03 2010/

THE PERSISTENT UPPER LOW OVER THE TX/LA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY. THE PRIMARY
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL ALSO CONTINUE IT SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS ACROSS
SOUTHERN LA/MS/AL AND INTO WESTERN FL BY THU MORNING. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WHERE SUFFICIENT
VERTICAL SHEAR IS PRESENT FOR TRANSIENT ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF
GUSTY WINDS. WEAK SURFACE-BASED CAPE AND POOR LAPSE RATES ARE
EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE THREAT OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL PROMOTE MODEST
HEATING OVER SOUTHEAST LA. MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP DESPITE WEAK LOW LEVEL DRY ADVECTION. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THIS POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. COOLING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A RISK OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN
THE STRONGEST STORMS. SEVERE ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED.

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