SWODY2
SPC AC 031722
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1222 PM CDT WED NOV 03 2010
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN FCST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
PERIOD...FEATURING RIDGING FROM NRN GULF OF CA REGION NNEWD ACROSS
NRN ROCKIES TO WRN CANADA. DEEP SYNOPTIC-SCALE TROUGHING WILL BE
DOMINANT E OF MS RIVER...REINFORCED BY STG SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SPEED
MAX NOW DIGGING SEWD ACROSS MN/IA...AND UPSTREAM PERTURBATION NOW
OVER NW TERRITORIES. AS HEIGHTS FALL SIGNIFICANTLY OVER SERN
CONUS...IN ADVANCE OF THOSE SHORTWAVES...PERSISTENT DEEP-LAYER
VORTEX NOW OVER UPPER TX COAST WILL ACCELERATE EWD ACROSS NRN GULF
AS OPEN-WAVE TROUGH. LATTER PERTURBATION SHOULD REACH W COAST OF FL
BETWEEN 5/00Z-5/06Z AS WEAKENING BUT STILL
WELL-DEFINED...POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH...THEN MOVE EWD ACROSS ALL
BUT EXTREME SRN FL BY END OF PERIOD.
AT SFC...LOW NOW INVOF MS COAST IS FCST TO WEAKEN ALONG COLD FRONT
BY BEGINNING OF PERIOD...WITH FRONT LOCATED AT THAT TIME FROM
CENTRAL GULF NEWD ACROSS FL PANHANDLE TO CENTRAL SC...TO DEVELOPING
SFC CYCLONE OVER VA-TIDEWATER REGION. THESE LOWS MAY CONSOLIDATE
LATE IN PERIOD OFFSHORE VA/NC. COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH CENTRAL FL
PENINSULA IN 5/00Z-5/06Z TIME FRAME...MOVING THROUGH KEYS BY AROUND
5/12Z.
...FL...
SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE IN AT LEAST TWO ROUNDS -- FIRST BEING
PREFRONTAL CONVECTION DURING MORNING AND SECOND BEING INVOF FROPA
DURING AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FAVORABLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
WITH SFC DEW POINTS UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEG F...ALONG WITH WEAK
CINH. DESPITE NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES FROM SFC THROUGH
TROPOSPHERE...STRENGTH OF MID-UPPER WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR -- E.G. EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF
40-50 KT. LIMITING FACTORS WILL INCLUDE LIKELIHOOD OF ABUNDANT
CLOUDINESS AND PERHAPS PRE-FRONTAL PRECIP LIMITING DIABATIC SFC
HEATING INLAND...WEAK LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND VEERED SFC WINDS
THAT REDUCE BOTH CONVERGENCE AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. SHEAR ALSO WILL
DECREASE WITH SWD EXTENT INTO SRN FL. WEIGHING THESE
FACTORS...PRIND SVR THREAT IS MRGL...PRIMARILY FOR WIND.
THEREFORE...WILL HOLD PROBABILITIES AT 5% LEVEL SPECIFIED IN PRIOR
DAY-2 OUTLOOK...BUT SHIFTED SOMEWHAT NWD TO ACCOUNT FOR SLOWER
RECENT PROGS OF FROPA.
..EDWARDS.. 11/03/2010
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