DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 111730
SWODY2
SPC AC 111729

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT SAT MAY 11 2013

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL EXIST OVER THE CONUS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY AN EXTENSIVE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...WITH A COLD FRONT CONTINUING TO
MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC/FL PENINSULA AND
GULF OF MEXICO. GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES UPPER RIDGING WILL PARTIALLY
ABATE TO AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

...FL PENINSULA...
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SUBTLE CYCLONIC/WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA ON
SUNDAY. WHILE CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT...POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OR HALF OF THE PENINSULA...WITH COASTAL SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION
CONTRIBUTING TO SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN THE WARM SECTOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THESE FACTORS AND RESIDUALLY COOL TEMPERATURES
ALOFT /AROUND -10C AT 500 MB/...SOME STRONGER/POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS
CAPABLE OF WIND AND/OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL COULD OCCUR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

...NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...
AN UPSWING IN ISOLATED TSTM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF ORE INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN ID AND WESTERN MT. THIS WILL BE AS THE REGION
BEGINS TO COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE AN APPROACHING/AMPLIFYING UPPER
TROUGH NEARING THE COASTAL PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A SUFFICIENT
COLLOCATION OF MODERATE SHEAR/MINIMAL BUOYANCY COULD LEAD TO A FEW
STRONGER STORMS IN AREAS SUCH AS NORTHEAST ORE/NORTH-CENTRAL ID
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT THE SCENARIO CURRENTLY APPEARS RATHER
MARGINAL FOR SEVERE PROBABILITIES. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A BIT
MORE OF AN ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE TSTM THREAT ACROSS THE REGION WILL
DELAYED UNTIL MONDAY...SEE THE CURRENT DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.

..GUYER.. 05/11/2013

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