MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0633

ACUS11 KWNS 111953
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111953
NYZ000-CTZ000-NJZ000-112100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0633
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0253 PM CDT SAT MAY 11 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 111953Z - 112100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SMALL-SCALE BUT INTENSE BOW ECHO CROSSING MANHATTAN AT
TIME. LOCAL WIND GUSTS OF 40-50KT AND TORRENTIAL RAIN/SMALL HAIL
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE METROPOLITAN AREA IN THE NEXT HALF HOUR.
IMPACTED AREA REMAINS TOO LOCALIZED FOR SVR WATCH AND EXPECT
CONVECTION TO WEAKEN AS IT COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COOLER MORE
STABLE MARITIME AIRMASS.

DISCUSSION...INTENSE BOWING CONVECTION HAS FORMED A BOW AND BOW-HEAD
COMMA JUST WEST OF MANHATTAN IN THE LAST 20-30 MINUTES AND WILL MOVE
EAST INTO WRN LONG ISLAND SOUND AND WRN LONG ISLAND. AREAL THREAT OF
SEVERE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN TOO ISOLATED FOR A WATCH...ESPECIALLY AS
STORMS BEGIN TO INGEST MORE STABLE MARITIME AIRMASS OFF THE COOLER
ATLANTIC WATERS.

..CARBIN.. 05/11/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...

LAT...LON 40847428 41037397 41087362 41037336 40907314 40717305
40537333 40437388 40667419 40847428

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