SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221926
NEZ000-KSZ000-222130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0859
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SCNTRL NEB...WRN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 221926Z - 222130Z
TSTMS SHOULD INITIATE BETWEEN 21-22Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF SCNTRL NEB
AND WRN KS WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF
THE REGION.
LATEST PROFILER/VWP PLOTS SHOW AN AREA OF INCREASING DIVERGENCE
ALOFT AS H5/H25 JET TURNS NWD ACROSS ERN CO INTO NEB AND A SECOND
BRANCH PEELS MORE ENEWD ACROSS OK AND CNTRL KS. AT THE
SFC...LEE-LOW OVER EXTREME SWRN KS AT 18Z IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
SLOWLY NEWD ALONG AN INITIAL SURGE OF MORE DENSE/COLD AIR INTO NWRN
KS BY LATE AFTN. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS BACKED
TO SSELY WITH INCREASING CONVERGENCE NOTED FROM NEAR LEXINGTON NEB
SWWD TO NEAR/NW OF GARDEN CITY KS. VSBL SATL SHOWS INCREASING SFC
BASED CUMULUS ALONG THIS ZONE AND CONTINUED HEATING SHOULD ERASE
INHIBITION SUFFICIENTLY FOR INITIATION BY 22Z.
VERTICAL SHEAR IS MORE SUBSTANTIAL ACROSS SRN NEB AND KS GIVEN
GREATER DEGREE OF CROSS-OVER BETWEEN LOW- AND MID-LEVEL FLOW
REGIMES. THUS...THE SUPERCELL THREAT WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER THAN AT
POINTS FARTHER TO THE NORTH. STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND MAGNITUDE
OF SHEAR SUGGEST LARGE HAIL...SOME LARGER THAN 2 INCHES IN
DIAMETER...WILL BE LIKELY. MOREOVER...0-1KM SHEAR...PARTICULARLY
VCNTY THE SFC LOW TRACK...WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH FOR TORNADOES.
ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EWD TOWARD CNTRL KS AND SCNTRL NEB
TOWARD THE US HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR LATER THIS EVENING.
.RACY.. 05/22/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...
38280174 39950123 41650077 42090019 42109893 41239829
40289854 38209950
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