SWODY2
SPC AC 221733
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1233 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2007
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
..THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NW OK...CNTRL
AND NE KS...SE NEB AND THE FAR NE TX PANHANDLE...
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS...SRN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...
..SRN/CNTRL PLAINS...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE WRN STATES. MODEL FORECASTS MOVE THIS FEATURE GRADUALLY EWD
ACROSS THE ROCKIES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY INCREASING LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...A SFC LOW NEAR THE TX PANHANDLE AND A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING NEWD FROM THE LOW INTO CNTRL KS AND SE NEB WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND
VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MODEL FORECASTS MOVE A BROAD MID-LEVEL JET EWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES FROM 40 TO 60 KT SUGGESTING
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIKELY IN THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS SHOULD
EXIST ACROSS KS AND NW OK WHERE INITIATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LATER
AND STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY LESS. THIS AREA WILL BE
NORTHEAST OF A SFC LOW AND SFC WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE BACKED. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN STRONG SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER RESULTING IN A TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. NAM AND GFS MODEL
FORECASTS BOTH AGREE THAT A STRONG-LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP BY
EARLY EVENING FROM THE AREA AROUND GAG OK NNEWD TO SALINA KS. THIS
FEATURE WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES AND A THREAT
FOR SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES MAY DEVELOP WEST AND NORTH OF THE
LOW-LEVEL JET BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. STORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE IN
THE EVENING ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND A SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL MCS CLUSTERS DEVELOP AND MOVE EWD ACROSS
THE REGION.
..UPPER MIDWEST...
MODEL FORECASTS MOVE A WRN U.S. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EWD ACROSS THE
ROCKIES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW
DEVELOPING IN THE NRN PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC...A LOW
WILL DEVELOP OVER MANITOBA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EWD ACROSS MN AND
WRN IA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SHOW MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES
IN PLACE SUGGESTING SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION...INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE GREATER SWWD ALONG THE
BOUNDARY SUGGESTING THE SEVERE WEATHER REPORT COVERAGE OF LARGE HAIL
AND WIND DAMAGE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM CNTRL MN SWWD ACROSS
WRN IA
.BROYLES.. 05/22/2007
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