DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 280033
SWODY1
SPC AC 280031

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0731 PM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

VALID 280100Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

...PLAINS...
PRE-FRONTAL BANDS OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXTENDING FROM THE TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA ARE EMBEDDED
WITHIN A NARROW PLUME OF LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE EMANATING
FROM THE LOWER LATITUDE EASTERN PACIFIC. LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW OF
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ALSO CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...AND COULD EVENTUALLY CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING CONVECTIVE
TRENDS LATER THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT...AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS
EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT.

IT REMAINS A BIT UNCLEAR WHETHER THIS LEAD ACTIVITY...OR ANOTHER
NARROW LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...NOW FORMING TO THE WEST IN
ASSOCIATION WITH STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION...WILL BECOME MOST PROMINENT THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...AS THE
MID/UPPER SHORT WAVE IMPULSE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT...MODELS
SUGGEST SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET STRENGTHENING IN EXCESS OF 50 KT ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY BETWEEN NOW AND 05-07Z.
ALTHOUGH MOST UNSTABLE CAPE WILL REMAIN MODEST TO WEAK IN
MAGNITUDE...IT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN FAIRLY VIGOROUS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE EVENING...INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...GIVEN THE LARGE-SCALE FORCING. AND THE DOWNWARD TRANSPORT
OF HIGHER MOMENTUM IN THE STRONGER ACTIVITY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS. FOR THIS GENERAL REASON...SLIGHT
RISK PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN NEBRASKA...AND A BIT EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.

..KERR.. 09/28/2013

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