SWODY1
SPC AC 131253
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007
VALID 131300Z - 141200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL HI PLNS INTO THE
LWR MO VLY...
..SYNOPSIS...
GRT BASIN UPR LOW/TROUGH EXPECTED TO CONTINUE E INTO CO/NW NM BY
EARLY SUNDAY AS DOWNSTREAM RIDGE PROGRESSES E TO THE MID MS VLY.
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW NOW ON THE CO/KS BORDER SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY TODAY BEFORE MOVING SLOWLY NNE TO NEAR HLC TONIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY. STRONG SYSTEM NOW CROSSING THE NORTHEAST SHOULD REINFORCE
SFC RIDGE FROM THE OH VLY TO THE ERN GULF CST. THIS...IN TURN...
SHOULD LIMIT BREADTH/DEPTH OF RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE SRN/CNTRL PLNS.
..CNTRL HI PLNS INTO LWR MO VLY...
AN AXIS OF PERSISTENT LOW LVL WAA WILL EXIST THROUGH THE PERIOD
ACROSS MUCH OF NEB ESE INTO THE LWR MO VLY...N AND NE OF
AFOREMENTIONED CO/KS SFC LOW. THIS PATTERN IS SUPPORTING CURRENT
MCS IN NE KS/NW MO...AND LIKELY WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL CLUSTERS OF
ELEVATED STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NEB THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. DESPITE
RATHER MODEST MOISTURE INFLUX...SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY
/MUCAPE OF 1000 TO 1500 J PER KG/ SHOULD EXIST TO SUPPORT OCCASIONAL
UPDRAFTS POSING A THREAT FOR SVR HAIL GIVEN 30-35 KT SW TO WSWLY
CLOUD-LYR SHEAR.
FARTHER W...ADDITIONAL...MORE NEARLY SFC-BASED STORMS EXPECTED THIS
AFTN THROUGH TONIGHT IN NRN CO AND SE WY. DEEP SHEAR WILL DECREASE
WITH TIME AS CENTER OF UPR SYSTEM APPROACHES...AND ASCENT IN EXIT
REGION OF ASSOCIATED 100 KT UPR LVL JET STREAK...COUPLED WITH NELY
UPSLOPE FLOW...SHOULD FAVOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE. THESE
FACTORS MAY LIMIT CHANCES FOR DISCRETE STORM STRUCTURES. BUT COOL
MID LVL TEMPERATURES SUGGEST THAT EMBEDDED STORMS COULD ALSO POSE A
THREAT FOR SVR HAIL...ESPECIALLY DURING EARLY STAGES OF DEVELOPMENT.
THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL SPREAD E INTO WRN NEB AND PERHAPS NW KS
EARLY SUNDAY.
FARTHER S...RATHER LIMITED LOW LVL MOISTURE RETURN...EXISTING 700 MB
WARM PLUME AND RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LVL CONVERGENCE CAST DOUBT ON
LIKELIHOOD FOR SFC-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY ALONG LEE SFC
TROUGH/DRY LINE FROM WRN KS SSW TO THE TX PANHANDLE.
NEVERTHELESS...A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH
HAIL AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO WILL EXIST ALONG THIS CORRIDOR. THIS
POTENTIAL SHOULD BE GREATEST INVOF WARM FRONT/DRYLINE INTERSECTION
IN NW/N CNTRL KS...AND SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SWD EXTENT.
.CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 10/13/2007
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