MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2070

ACUS11 KWNS 132120
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132120
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-132215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2070
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0420 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SWRN KS...CENTRAL/ERN OK PANHANDLE...THE
NERN TX PANHANDLE AND FAR NWRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 132120Z - 132215Z

MODERATE CU HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG A SFC TROUGH/DRYLINE
EXTENDING FROM THE NERN TX PANHANDLE NEWD INTO CENTRAL KS. ISOLATED
TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BY 23Z WITH POTENTIAL FOR SVR
WIND/HAIL.

LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE CU DEVELOPING ALONG A SFC
TROUGH OVER CENTRAL KS SWWD TO A LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR DDC AND
THEN ALONG A DRYLINE INTO THE CENTRAL/ERN OK PANHANDLE AND NERN TX
PANHANDLE. RECENT OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS LESS THAN 50 J/KG OF
MLCINH ALONG BOTH BOUNDARIES. A FEW MORE HOURS OF HEATING MAY
SUPPORT ISOLATED SVR TSTMS INVOF OF THE SFC LOW/BOUNDARY ACROSS
SWRN/CENTRAL KS WHERE CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED. COVERAGE OF
TSTMS MAY BE MITIGATED AS THE SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND
SWRN/CENTRAL KS BOUNDARY RETREAT WWD OVER THE NEXT FEW IN RESPONSE
TO STRENGTHENING PRESSURE FALLS OVER SERN CO. MORE LIMITED
CONVERGENCE FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE DRYLINE SHOULD ALSO HINDER
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NRN TX PANHANDLE. STRONG MID LEVEL
FLOW /50-60 KTS ON THE TCU PROFILER/ AND MODERATE INSTABILITY /
MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG/ SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
AT LEAST A MARGINAL SVR THREAT WITH THE ANY TSTM THAT MAY DEVELOP.
PRESENT UNCERTAINTY IN THE AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION PRECLUDES A
GREATER PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE.

.CROSBIE.. 10/13/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

38529917 38130001 37520053 37300116 36800173 35920182
35580177 35420186 35200180 35090166 35110144 35380102
35850068 36240029 36769990 37139914 37489910 37869873
38369852

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