SWODY1
SPC AC 131948
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0248 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007
VALID 132000Z - 141200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
EWD ACROSS NEB AND NRN KS...
..SYNOPSIS...
WRN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE EWD THIS FORECAST PERIOD
TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND SWRN STATES. EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE
ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM W CENTRAL KS
INTO SERN CO...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD THROUGH CENTRAL KS TO
CENTRAL MO. A SECONDARY WARM FRONT/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY
EXTENDED NEWD FROM W CENTRAL KS INTO SERN NEB/SWRN IA.
..FRONT RANGE FROM CO INTO SERN WY AND PART OF NEB PANHANDLE...
OBJECTIVE ANALYSES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON INDICATED SOME SURFACE
HEATING COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES HAS RESULTED IN A NARROW
AXIS OF DESTABILIZATION ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. REGIONAL RADARS AND
LIGHTNING DATA SHOWED TSTMS HAD DEVELOPED IN THIS AREA FROM NRN CO
INTO SERN WY. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY WEAK...
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CLOUD LAYER SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT STRONGER STORMS WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR HAIL. SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT SHOULD DECREASE WITH EWD EXTENT INTO SWRN NEB THIS
AFTERNOON...GIVEN PRESENCE OF A COOLER...MORE STABLE AIR MASS ACROSS
THIS AREA PER EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER.
..CENTRAL PLAINS TO LOWER MO VALLEY...
ONGOING CLUSTER OF TSTMS SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MO VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN IN INTENSITY AS LLJ INTO THIS
REGION DECREASES IN STRENGTH. MEANWHILE...WSR-88D VADS/WIND
PROFILERS SHOWED LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS KS/OK HAVE BACKED TO SLY IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. EXIT REGION 50-65 KT SWLY
MID LEVEL JET ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THIS EVENING. ASCENT FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION WITH THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL WAA/
DESTABILIZATION AS SLY LLJ STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING SUGGESTS TSTMS
WILL DEVELOP AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE PRIMARILY N OF THE WARM FRONT
FROM NERN CO INTO NEB AND NRN KS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. WHILE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000 J/KG N OF WARM
FRONT...THE RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH
STRENGTHENING CLOUD LAYER SHEAR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO POSE A
THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL.
.PETERS.. 10/13/2007
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