SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131923
NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-132100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2069
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0223 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN CO...SE WY...WRN NEB
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 131923Z - 132100Z
A SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS NRN
CO...SE WY AND WRN NEB. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS
MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THE SITUATION
APPEARS MARGINAL...WW ISSUANCE REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND TROUGH OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. A 75 KT MID-LEVEL JET IS EJECTING OUT OF
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS INCREASING ACROSS
THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS ACCORDING TO RUC ANALYSIS. THIS COMBINED WITH
WARMING SFC TEMPS ARE ALLOWING FOR STORM INITIATION IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN NRN CO...SE WY AND ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE NEAR THE
CO-NEB-WY STATE-LINE INTERSECTION. THE SFC-BASED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. COLD TEMPS ALOFT AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR SHOWN ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS SHOULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED HAIL
THREAT WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED STORMS OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS
ESPECIALLY AS INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE DRY BOUNDARY LAYER MAY ALSO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED MICROBURST
THREAT.
.BROYLES.. 10/13/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LBF...BOU...CYS...
40710277 41240223 42050225 42470318 42270441 41770521
41100544 40250518 40260391
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