DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 131602
SWODY1
SPC AC 131559

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1059 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

VALID 131630Z - 141200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO
THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...

..SYNOPSIS...
GREAT BASIN UPR TROUGH EXPECTED TO CONTINUE E INTO CO/NM BY
EARLY SUNDAY AS DOWNSTREAM RIDGE PROGRESSES E TO THE MID MS VLY.
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW NOW VICINITY SE CO/SWRN KS BORDER SHOULD REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY THRU THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING SLOWLY NNE TO
NEAR HLC BY EARLY SUNDAY.

..CNTRL HI PLNS INTO LWR MO VLY...
AN AXIS OF PERSISTENT LOW LVL WAA WILL EXIST THROUGH THE PERIOD
ACROSS MUCH OF NEB ESE INTO THE LWR MO VLY...N AND NE OF
AFOREMENTIONED CO/KS SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT WHICH LIES ACROSS
CENTRAL KS/MO. ONGOING MCS IN NE KS/NW MO SUPPORTED BY THIS
EFFECTIVE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. THIS SETUP IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NEB THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. WHILE ELEVATED INSTABILITY GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000
J/KG N OF WARM FRONT...THE RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING CLOUD LAYER SHEAR PROFILES EXPECTED TO
POSE A THREAT FOR SVR HAIL.

FARTHER W...ADDITIONAL...MORE NEARLY SFC-BASED STORMS EXPECTED THIS
AFTN/EARLY TONIGHT IN NERN CO AND SE WY. EXIT REGION OF
APPROACHING 100 KT UPR LVL JET STREAK...COUPLED WITH NELY
UPSLOPE FLOW...SHOULD FAVOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. COOL MID LVL TEMPERATURES
SUGGEST THAT EMBEDDED STORMS COULD ALSO POSE A THREAT FOR SVR
HAIL...ESPECIALLY DURING EARLY STAGES OF DEVELOPMENT.
THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL SPREAD E INTO WRN NEB AND PERHAPS NW KS
OVERNIGHT.

FARTHER S...RATHER LIMITED LOW LVL MOISTURE RETURN...EXISTING 700 MB
WARM PLUME AND RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LVL CONVERGENCE CAST DOUBT ON
LIKELIHOOD FOR SFC-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY ALONG LEE SFC
TROUGH/DRY LINE FROM WRN KS SSW TO THE TX PANHANDLE.
NEVERTHELESS...A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH
HAIL AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO WILL EXIST ALONG THIS CORRIDOR. THIS
POTENTIAL SHOULD BE GREATEST INVOF WARM FRONT/DRYLINE INTERSECTION
IN NW/N CNTRL KS...AND SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SWD EXTENT.

.HALES/CROSBIE.. 10/13/2007

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