SWODY2
SPC AC 031704
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1104 AM CST MON NOV 03 2008
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...NRN PLAINS...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST INTO
THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES BY THE END OF THE DAY2 PERIOD...WITH EXIT
REGION OF UPPER JET EXPECTED TO FOCUS ASCENT/MOISTENING AT MID
LEVELS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. AS
UPPER SPEED MAX ADVANCES INTO THE PLAINS THERE IS LITTLE DOUBT SLY
LLJ WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY DRAWING MODIFIED MOISTURE NWD ACROSS
TX/OK INTO EAST SIDE OF DEVELOPING LEE CYCLONE OVER SD/NEB. MODELS
ALL SUGGEST WARM SECTOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE DIFFICULT
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS DUE TO MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
AND A STOUT CAP. WITH TIME CONVECTION SHOULD EVOLVE OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE NEB PANHANDLE AND WRN SD. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
EXTREMELY MOISTURE STARVED BUT CERTAINLY SUPPORTED KINEMATICALLY.
AS CONVECTION SPREADS DOWNSTREAM...DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO
STRONGER WARM ADVECTION ZONE ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS...ELEVATED
INSTABILITY MAY PROVE ADEQUATE FOR A FEW ROBUST UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL.
...ELSEWHERE...
POST FRONTAL WLY ONSHORE FLOW REGIME SHOULD SPREAD SUFFICIENT
BUOYANCY INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW FOR LOW TOPPED CONVECTION AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. WITH UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO SHIFT
INTO ID/NV BY AFTERNOON...RISING HEIGHTS/WARMING MID LEVELS SHOULD
BE LESS FAVORABLE FOR UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF GENERATING LIGHTNING.
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST IN CONJUNCTION WITH WELL DEFINED SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM
ADVECTION. POOR LAPSE RATES INLAND WILL SEVERELY LIMIT THE WWD
PROGRESSION OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP ATOP COOLER
AIRMASS OVER LAND. ANY REAL THREAT FOR LIGHTNING SHOULD BE NEAR THE
COAST...OR MORE LIKELY OVER THE WARMER WATERS.
..DARROW.. 11/03/2008
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