SWODY1
SPC AC 031939
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0139 PM CST MON NOV 03 2008
VALID 032000Z - 041200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
DEEP CONVECTION WILL BE EXTREMELY SPARSE ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD AS REGIONAL POCKETS OF
MOISTURE...SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS...ARE MOSTLY VOID OF STEEPER
LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. THE MOST CONCENTRATED CLUSTER OF CONVECTION
WITH LIGHTNING THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD PERSIST AHEAD OF WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER LAKE ERIE. ANOTHER ZONE OF CONVECTION...WITH ISOLATED
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...WILL CONTINUE OVER THE GULF STREAM JUST OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH PRONOUNCED INVERTED SFC
TROUGH. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD SPREAD JUST INLAND BEFORE
WEAKENING. FARTHER EAST...STRONG HEATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
WEST TX HAS PROVEN INSTRUMENTAL IN LONE THUNDERSTORM OVER ERN JEFF
DAVIS COUNTY JUST SW OF FST. WEAK FLOW/INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT
STRONGER UPDRAFTS TO HIGHER TERRAIN. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
CLEARLY DEPICTS INCOMING FRONT OFF THE CA COAST. WITH TIME THIS
BOUNDARY WILL SURGE ACROSS NRN CA AND MARINE LAYER SHOULD SPREAD
INLAND. IT APPEARS LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS JUST NORTH OF STRONG JET AXIS.
..DARROW.. 11/03/2008
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