SWODY2
SPC AC 030608
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1208 AM CST MON NOV 03 2008
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS REMAIN SIMILAR...AND CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A STRONG POLAR
JET CORE WILL FINALLY DIG INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST DURING
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...A BROAD FAIRLY DEEP
MID/UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MIGRATE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
AND ROCKIES...INTO THE PLAINS...SUPPORTING STRONG SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS TO THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AND...A DOWNSTREAM
TROUGH...WITHIN A WEAKER SOUTHERN BRANCH OF SPLIT POLAR
WESTERLIES...APPEARS LIKELY TO BEGIN SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE
SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST. WHILE SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO AND WESTERN GULF COAST REGION MAY BEGIN TO
WEAKEN...GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS THAT BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATION
OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A
SIGNIFICANT/DEEP LAYER INLAND RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. COUPLED WITH CONSIDERABLE LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC
INHIBITION ACROSS THE PLAINS...ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
AIR ADVECTING OFF THE PLATEAU REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT
APPEARS LIMITED.
...PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY/NORTHERN PLAINS...
DESPITE THE LACK OF A STRONG MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO...A TONGUE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY MID 50S+ F
SURFACE DEW POINTS IS CURRENTLY PRESENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS...WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTENING ONGOING ACROSS THE
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW EAST OF THE
DEVELOPING LEE SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD ADVECT THIS AIR MASS NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE PLAINS BY LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...WHEN FORCING FOR
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION NEAR A CONSOLIDATING SURFACE LOW CENTER OVER
SOUTH DAKOTA MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO OVERCOME INHIBITION.
STORMS MAY INITIATE IN AN ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION REGIME...NORTH OF
A WARM FRONT FORMING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW.
BUT...STRENGTHENING FORCING IN THE EXIT REGION OF AN INITIAL
MID-LEVEL JET STREAK NOSING INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY MAY SUPPORT
STORMS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. IF THIS OCCURS...ACTIVITY MAY STILL BE ELEVATED ABOVE A
SHALLOW STABLE SURFACE LAYER...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AT LEAST LARGE
HAIL.
...SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS...
THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AND HIGHER THUNDERSTORM
PROBABILITIES...ARE EXPECTED TO BE FOCUSED NEAR THE SURFACE LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH...GENERALLY OFFSHORE
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
...WESTERN STATES...
COLD MID-LEVEL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MAY CONTRIBUTE
TO SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR WIDELY SCATTERED WEAK THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TUESDAY...ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES...AND AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES.
..KERR.. 11/03/2008
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