SWOD48
SPC AC 030958
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0358 AM CST MON NOV 03 2008
VALID 061200Z - 111200Z
...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MID/LWR MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO
WESTERN GULF COASTAL AREAS THURSDAY...
WITH A SIGNIFICANT LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLONE LIKELY TO LINGER JUST EAST
OF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK
WEEK...THE WARM SECTOR OF THE CYCLONE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN PLAINS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME PARTICULARLY BROAD.
AND...IT WILL LIKELY BECOME CONFINED TO A NARROWING TONGUE ACROSS
THE UPPER TEXAS/LOUISIANA COAST INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
ON THURSDAY...WHERE/WHEN THE SEVERE THREAT MAY REMAIN ELEVATED.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY COULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DAMAGING
WIND AND HAIL POTENTIAL WITH A PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE...WITH
PERHAPS A FEW SUPERCELLS ALSO POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF THE LINE ACROSS
PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BEFORE THE CYCLONE OCCLUDES
AND GULF MOISTURE RETURN BECOMES CUT-OFF.
THEREAFTER...MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE
PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH A
GROWING SPREAD AMONG MODELS AND MREF MEMBERS CONCERNING THE PATTERN
EVOLUTION ACROSS THE EAST...AND THE REMAINDER OF THE U.S...BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE SOUTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY
ACCELERATE INTO THE ATLANTIC BY SATURDAY...AS THE LARGE-SCALE
UPSTREAM TROUGH PROGRESSES INTO THE EASTERN STATES. BUT...LOW-LEVEL
FLOW IS PROGGED TO MAINTAIN A SUBSTANTIAL WESTERLY COMPONENT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST AND ATLANTIC SEABOARD...WHICH WILL PROBABLY
MINIMIZE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
..KERR.. 11/03/2008
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment