MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0313

ACUS11 KWNS 011753
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011752
MEZ000-011945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0313
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1152 AM CST SAT MAR 01 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...DOWNEAST MAINE

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 011752Z - 011945Z

MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF COASTAL MAINE
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FOCUSED ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN MAINE
..FROM THE I-95 CORRIDOR BETWEEN BANGOR AND LINCOLN
..EASTWARD...SHORTLY...AND CONTINUE INTO LATE AFTERNOON.

SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IS NOW UNDERWAY NEAR THE
MASSACHUSETTS COAST. AND...MODEL PROGS GENERALLY INDICATE 1 MB PER
HOUR DEEPENING OF THE LOW AS IT TRACKS EAST NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
COASTAL MAINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ACROSS MUCH OF MAINE...WHERE SUB-FREEZING
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES INLAND OF CURRENT COASTAL SNOW BAND ARE
BECOMING INCREASINGLY SATURATED.

WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...STRONGEST DEEP LAYER ASCENT APPEARS
LIKELY TO BECOME FOCUSED ACROSS MUCH OF DOWNEAST MAINE...ON THE NOSE
OF AN EAST SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN IN
EXCESS OF 50 KT. THIS IS WHERE MODELS SUGGEST THAT JUXTAPOSITION
WITH STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING...ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCREASINGLY
NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING EAST OF THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES...WILL SUPPORT INTENSIFYING LIFT THROUGH THE MIXED PHASE LAYER
FAVORABLE FOR DENDRITIC ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH. AND...SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE APPEARS TO EXIST TO SUPPORT A SUSTAINED PERIOD OF 1-2 INCH
PER HOUR SNOW RATES...BEFORE ONSET OF WEAK MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING TOWARD 21-22Z.

.KERR.. 03/01/2008

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

..NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...

44606759 44516820 44716905 45266918 45926879 46136845
46046766

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