DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 011302
SWODY1
SPC AC 011259

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0659 AM CST SAT MAR 01 2008

VALID 011300Z - 021200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE BUT INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE CONUS THIS PERIOD. PACIFIC NW TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE E/SE TO
THE RCKYS BY EARLY SUNDAY AS PLNS RIDGE MOVES E TO THE MS VLY IN
WAKE OF DEEPENING SYSTEM OVER NY/NEW ENGLAND. IN THE SRN BRANCH...
SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT CLOSED LOW NOW NEAR YUM IS BECOMING
ABSORBED INTO PACIFIC NW TROUGH. THE SRN SYSTEM SHOULD REACH FAR W
TX AS AN OPEN WAVE BY 12Z SUNDAY.

..PAC NW THROUGH NRN RCKYS...
SEVERAL BANDS OF SCTD TO BKN CONVECTION...WITH ISOLD TSTMS...ARE
PRESENT ATTM OVER FAR WRN WA/ORE AND OFF THE WA/ORE CST...BENEATH
AXIS OF COLDEST AIR ALOFT /AOB -30 C AT 500 MB/ ASSOCIATED WITH
AFOREMENTIONED UPR TROUGH. DIURNAL HEATING OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OVER INTERIOR PARTS OF THE NWRN U.S./NRN RCKYS WILL RESULT IN A COOL
BUT VERY DEEP MIXED LAYER /SFC TO ABOVE 500 MB/ AS THE TROUGH
CONTINUES E/SE LATER TODAY. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION/POSSIBLE THUNDER AS SBCAPE INCREASES TO AROUND 200
J/KG...MAINLY THIS AFTN THROUGH EARLY TO MID EVENING.

..S TX...
MORNING RAOBS CONTINUE TO SHOW EML CAP OVER S TX. E/SELY NEAR-SFC
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN THE LOWEST LAYER OVER REGION. BUT
LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE WEAK OR NON-EXISTENT GIVEN /1/...SHORT
WAVE RIDGING ALOFT...AND /2/ CONTINUED DISSOLUTION OF SHALLOW FRONT
THAT MOVED INTO REGION YESTERDAY. THUS...WHILE SCTD SHOWERS MAY
FORM WITH DIURNAL HEATING...THEY SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED BENEATH THE
EML INVERSION AND NOT SUFFICIENTLY DEEPEN TO YIELD THUNDER. A FEW
STORMS COULD FORM LATER TODAY W OF THE RIO GRANDE IN UPSLOPE FLOW
OVER THE NRN MEXICO MOUNTAINS...BUT ANY SUCH ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
SW OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

..SRN NM/FAR W TX VERY LATE IN PERIOD...
A BAND OF CONVECTION/ISOLD TSTMS MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD OVER
SRN NM/NRN CHIHUAHUA...AS LEADING EDGE OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAKENING SRN STREAM TROUGH APPROACHES REGION.

.CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 03/01/2008

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