DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 010952
SWOD48
SPC AC 010951

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0351 AM CST SAT MAR 01 2008

VALID 041200Z - 091200Z

..SVR WEATHER POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SERN STATES...NRN/CNTRL FL AND
THE ERN CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY...

..DISCUSSION...
UPR LOW EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE MID-SOUTH EARLY ON TUE WILL EJECT
NEWD AND PHASE WITH THE POLAR BRANCH OVER THE LWR GRTLKS REGION BY
WED. ATTENDANT SFC LOW WILL SUBSEQUENTLY DEEPEN AS IT MOVES FROM
MIDDLE TN EARLY TUE AND INTO NEW ENGLAND BY WED NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP SEWD TO THE S OF THE LOW...REACHING THE ERN SEABOARD AND
CNTRL FL TUE NIGHT.

A SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO ONGOING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DEEP SOUTH EARLY ON TUESDAY. STRONG SLY LLJ
WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE EWD INTO THE SERN STATES THROUGH THE
DAY...BUT THEN BEGIN TO MIGRATE NWD UP THE ATLC SEABOARD BY EVENING
AS THE PRIMARY CYCLONE EJECTS NEWD. GULF AND ATLC MOISTURE SHOULD
ADVECT INTO FL...MUCH OF GA AND THE ERN PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS...
LIKELY MAINTAINING THE SQUALL LINE. MAGNITUDE OF LOW/MID-LVL FLOW
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR BOWS AND SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS EXTREME ERN AL INTO GA AND MUCH OF NRN FL THROUGH LATE AFTN.
THE SQUALL LINE WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN WITH NRN EXTENT DUE TO LESS
INSTABILITY...AND WITH SRN EXTENT LATE IN THE AFTN AS OVERALL MASS
CONVERGENCE/SHEAR DIMINISH.

OTHERWISE...LATEST ECMWF/GFS ARE QUITE VARIED ON THE HANDLING OF THE
NEXT TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE PLAINS IN THE WED-FRI TIME
FRAME. AT LEAST HALF OF THE GEFS PERTURBATIONS SUPPORT THE ECMWF
IDEA OF CLOSING OFF ANOTHER LOW AND DROPPING IT SWD INTO MEXICO.
THIS IS IN CONTRAST TO THE MORE PROGRESSIVE/STRONGER GFS. AT THIS
POINT IN TIME...GIVEN POOR MODEL PREDICTABILITY...THE REMAINDER OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD SVR RISKS ARE UNCERTAIN.

.RACY.. 03/01/2008

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