MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0679

ACUS11 KWNS 182225
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182224
NDZ000-SDZ000-182330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0679
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0524 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NORTH DAKOTA...CNTRL AND NORTH CNTRL SOUTH
DAKOTA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 182224Z - 182330Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING ACROSS SRN NORTH DAKOTA...SWD INTO
CNTRL SOUTH DAKOTA. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

DISCUSSION...BROAD ASCENT IS OVERSPREADING PORTIONS OF THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SUBTLE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EJECTING NNE
TO THE EAST OF A LARGER-SCALE CYCLONE ACROSS THE WRN CONUS. THIS
ASCENT SHOULD ACT TO WEAKEN CINH ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
TSTMS ACROSS SRN NORTH DAKOTA AND CNTRL SOUTH DAKOTA. THE
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THIS AREA IS CHARACTERIZED BY MUCAPE AOA 1000
J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AOA 30 KTS WHICH IS SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS. ADDITIONALLY...STRONG/SVR TSTMS TO THE SW /ACROSS WW172/
MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THIS AREA. AS SUCH A WW MAY BECOME
NECESSARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS THE PRIMARY THREATS.

..MARSH/CORFIDI.. 05/18/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR...

LAT...LON 45010111 45920200 45960400 47060397 47530331 47760217
47730086 47629934 46869818 45949798 44659868 43749966
43910108 45010111

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