MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0866

ACUS11 KWNS 231730
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231730
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-232000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0866
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN...NRN/CENTRAL IA...SERN/SCENTRAL MN AND
SWRN/WCENTRAL WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 231730Z - 232000Z

SCT TO NMRS TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR OMA NEWD TO JUST WEST OF THE TWIN CITIES
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADDITIONAL TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
AHEAD OF A MCV OVER NERN IA WHILE MOVING INTO WCENTRAL/SWRN WI.
TSTMS IN BOTH AREAS MAY STRENGTHEN SUFFICIENTLY THAT AN ISOLATED
SEVERE WIND/HAIL THREAT MAY DEVELOP. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE WW.

RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED AREAS OF MOSTLY
CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL/NCENTRAL IA.
THIS AREA OF CLEARING SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEWD INTO
SCENTRAL/SERN MN. WITH HEATING AND CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION...
MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH MLCAPE VALUES FROM
1000-1500 J/KG ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM CENTRAL IA INTO
SCENTRAL MN. GIVEN MODERATE MID LEVEL WINDS /40-50 KTS AT SLATER IA
AND WOOD LAKE MN/...SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT TO
SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND SVR THREAT WITH THE
STRONGEST TSTMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FURTHER EAST...VISIBLE SAT
IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE PRESENCE OF AN MVC OVER NCENTRAL IA. TSTMS HAVE
DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THIS MVC OVER NERN IA AND WCENTRAL WI /POSSIBLY
AIDED BY A MODERATE LOW LEVEL JET/. GIVEN THE RECENT SPEED OF THESE
CELLS...ACTIVITY IS LIKELY NOT SURFACE BASED. HOWEVER SUFFICIENT
HEATING MAY OCCUR OVER WRN WI TO SUPPORT THIS ACTIVITY BECOMING
SURFACE BASED WITHIN A FEW HOURS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
DMGG WINDS/SVR HAIL GIVEN SIMILAR MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR IN PLACE
IN THIS AREA.

.CROSBIE.. 05/23/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...

45619177 45229331 44579424 44389436 43609492 43049529
42449540 42099568 41609577 41329491 41279271 42539149
43689021 44328983 45209011

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