SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231722
NEZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-231845-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0865
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1222 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB...NCNTRL THROUGH SCNTRL KS AND EXTREME
NWRN OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 231722Z - 231845Z
WEAK FRONT THAT HAS SETTLED SEWD HAS ESSENTIALLY STALLED FROM NEAR
KOMA SWWD THROUGH PRATT KS THEN SWWD INTO EXTREME NWRN OK AND THE
CNTRL TX PNHDL. TSTMS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY INCREASING ALONG THE KS
PORTION OF THIS FRONT AND WILL LIKELY EXPAND NEWD INTO ERN NEB LATER
AND POSSIBLY INTO EXTREME NWRN OK THROUGH THE AFTN. THIS REGION
RESIDES BENEATH ENTRANCE REGION OF 60-70 KT H5 JET MOVING INTO THE
NRN PLAINS AND WITHIN THE AXIS OF THE SWLY LLJ. GRADUAL HEATING AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL RESULT IN STRONGER UPDRAFTS WITH TIME
THROUGH THE AFTN. THOUGH DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN
MINIMAL...PARTICULARLY THROUGH MID-AFTN FROM NRN KS NWD...SPEED
SHEAR WAS MODEST AND ISOLD CELLS MAY ROTATE GIVING LARGE
HAIL/POSSIBLE HIGH WINDS.
MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE RISK SHOULD DEVELOP UPSTREAM OVER SWRN KS
INTO THE TX/OK PNHDLS REGIONS LATER THIS AFTN/EVE AS A RAPID
RECOVERY TAKES PLACE AHEAD OF THE STRONGER SRN ROCKIES IMPULSE. A
SEPARATE DISCUSSION WILL FOLLOW LATER HIGHLIGHTING THIS REGION AS
NEW UPR AIR DATA ARRIVES.
.RACY.. 05/23/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...
41039688 40419569 39679575 38769686 37849782 36829877
36659918 37189934 37969875 39019817 40209735
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