SWODY1
SPC AC 310054
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0754 PM CDT MON AUG 30 2010
VALID 310100Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS/NORTHEAST NEB TO MN...
...NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST...
EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS FEATURES A 1000 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL ND...WITH A STRONG SSW-NNE ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE
REMAINING QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS EASTERN ND...WITH THE REMAINING
PORTION OF THE FRONT STEADILY ADVANCING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
WESTERN NEB/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS VICINITY. THE MAJORITY OF THE SEVERE
THREAT THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN DAKOTAS/NORTHEAST NEB INTO THE WESTERN THIRD OR HALF OF MN.
MULTIPLE CONGEALING WAVES OF STORMS WILL QUICKLY RACE NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY IMMEDIATELY AHEAD
OF A MID LEVEL IMPULSE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CROSSING
NORTHEAST NEB/SOUTHEAST SD EARLY THIS EVENING.
WITH 00Z OBSERVED RAOBS/REGIONAL DERIVED WIND DATA INDICATIVE OF
VERY STRONG DEEP TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AND A VEER-BACK TYPE WIND PROFILE
IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS...A QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE WILL
REMAIN DOMINANT THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH EMBEDDED BOWS POSING A
DAMAGING WIND THREAT. AN ISOLATED/EMBEDDED TORNADO RISK WILL
NONETHELESS EXIST GIVEN CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL SRH /300-500 M2 PER
S2 0-1 KM/ IN CONCERT WITH A STRENGTHENING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL JET AND A MOIST ENVIRONMENT.
OTHER TSTMS...WITHIN A POST-SURFACE FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT NEAR THE
MAIN NORTHEAST EJECTING VORT MAX...MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A SEVERE
WIND/HAIL THREAT MAINLY THROUGH MID EVENING ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTHERN
ND AND NORTHERN SD.
..GUYER.. 08/31/2010
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