SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301002
NDZ000-301100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1756
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0502 AM CDT MON AUG 30 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND ERN ND
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 301002Z - 301100Z
A THREAT FOR HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY EXIST ACROSS
SRN AND ERN ND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WW REMAINS POSSIBLE IF THE
STORMS CAN CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS
MORNING.
A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IN SCNTRL ND ARE LOCATED FROM 100 TO 120
STATUTE MILES NORTHWEST OF A COLD FRONT ON TOP OF A STRONG CAPPING
INVERSION MAKING THE CONVECTION HIGHLY ELEVATED. THE STORMS ARE
LIKELY BEING SUPPORTED BY A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY OVER CNTRL SD. ETA-KF FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING
ACROSS SCNTRL SD SUGGESTS THE EFFECTIVE CLOUD LAYER SHEAR IS AROUND
60 KT WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE WITH
THE MORE INTENSE CELLS. GUSTY WIND MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER
CELLS. THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED BUT IF COVERAGE
INCREASES...A WW COULD BE WARRANTED.
..BROYLES.. 08/30/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
LAT...LON 46170014 46749893 46979855 47739749 48079782 48159826
48099888 47710002 47160111 46600136 46140089 46170014
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