SWOD48
SPC AC 300853
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 AM CDT MON AUG 30 2010
VALID 021200Z - 071200Z
...PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A SEVERE RISK AREA...
SUBSTANTIAL VARIABILITY PERSISTS AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE CONCERNING SHORT WAVE DEVELOPMENTS WITHIN THE STRONGER
WESTERLIES. THIS INCLUDES ONE SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE WHICH MAY BE IN
THE PROCESS OF DIGGING THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THE
BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. UNCERTAINTIES ARE TOO LARGE TO
CONFIDENTLY ASSESS THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR THURSDAY...ALONG
AND AHEAD OF AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS...WHERE THE ENVIRONMENT MAY REMAIN MOIST
AND POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE. HOWEVER...AS THE UPPER IMPULSE PROGRESSES
EASTWARD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ...HURRICANE
EARL APPEARS LIKELY TO BE MIGRATING NORTHWARD IN CLOSE ENOUGH
PROXIMITY TO THE COAST TO BE A NEGATIVE INFLUENCE ON SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL. AND DRYING IN THE WAKE OF BOTH FEATURES MAY BE ENOUGH TO
MITIGATE SUBSTANTIVE DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
LABOR DAY WEEKEND...EVEN WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES LIKELY TO
STEEPEN WITH THE ADVECTION OF ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR EAST OF THE
ROCKIES THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.
..KERR.. 08/30/2010
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment