SWODY3
SPC AC 300726
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 AM CDT MON AUG 30 2010
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WED AND WED NIGHT ACROSS PARTS
OF THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS AND MID MO VALLEY...
...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG...MORE ZONAL BELT OF WESTERLIES EVOLVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. EARLY THIS WEEK IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND BEYOND. IN RESPONSE TO
THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IMPULSES...UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN STATES APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN...AS HURRICANE EARL MIGRATES NORTHWESTWARD TO THE EAST OF THE
BAHAMAS ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT LARGE
VARIABILITY CONCERNING THE SHORT WAVE DEVELOPMENTS WITHIN THE STRONG
FLOW...INCLUDING ONE SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE WHICH IS PROGGED TO DIG
EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
LOW-LEVEL RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE ARE SUBSTANTIAL...CONTRIBUTING TO
UNCERTAIN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
...PARTS OF THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...
DESPITE THE UNCERTAINTIES...RESIDUAL HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
AND PRECIPITABLE WATER NOW IN THE PROCESS OF RETURNING TO THE
REGION...COUPLED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH LINGERING
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR...PROBABLY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL FOCUS FOR STORM INITIATION IS
UNCLEAR...FAIRLY STRONG MID-LEVEL COOLING AND FORCING WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO AID THE INITIATION OF STORMS AND STORM
CLUSTERS WITHIN A GENERAL LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME...FROM
PARTS OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN KANSAS. THIS COULD
OCCUR AS EARLY AS MIDDAY WEDNESDAY... CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...PERHAPS DEVELOPING AS FAR EAST AS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. GUIDANCE GENERALLY INDICATES WESTERLY 500 MB
FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KT...WHICH WILL AT LEAST CONTRIBUTE TO
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED STORM
CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
..KERR.. 08/30/2010
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