MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2056

ACUS11 KWNS 042137
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042137
NEZ000-KSZ000-042300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2056
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0437 PM CDT THU OCT 04 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL/NERN KS INTO S-CNTRL/SERN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 042137Z - 042300Z

TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY BETWEEN
04/22Z-05/00Z. SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND
PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO WILL EXIST SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP AND BECOME
SUSTAINED. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW
ISSUANCE.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED A COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN OVER THE
REGION WITH PRIMARY SYNOPTIC FRONT EXTENDING FROM SERN SD SWWD
THROUGH CNTRL NEB TO LOW PRESSURE OVER WRN KS. A COUPLE OF
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES WERE ALSO ANALYZED OVER EXTREME NRN
KS AND FROM S-CNTRL INTO E-CNTRL NEB. STRONG DIABATIC HEATING HAS
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGH THE 80S TO AROUND 90F OVER WRN
AND CNTRL PARTS OF KS. THIS HEATING COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S HAVE RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG AND A WEAKENING
CAP.

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER SURFACE-BASED STORMS
WILL DEVELOP AND BECOME SUSTAINED. LATEST SHORT TERM RUC/WRF
GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 04/22-05/00Z. THOUGH A
GENERAL WEAKNESS EXISTS IN THE MID-LEVEL WIND SPEEDS...AREA
PROFILERS INDICATE A KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS...NAMELY ACROSS S-CNTRL INTO SERN NEB
WHERE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE BACKED INVOF THE DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARIES. LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SOME HAIL WILL BE
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP. A BRIEF
TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELL STRUCTURES THAT CAN
MOVE/PROPAGATE THROUGH ZONE OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR OVER
S-CNTRL/SERN NEB.

.MEAD.. 10/04/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

39349972 40629896 41379766 41489681 41309605 40779596
39899618 39699681 38879901

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