SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042020
OKZ000-TXZ000-042215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2055
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0320 PM CDT THU OCT 04 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...WEST TX INTO FAR WRN OK/ERN OK PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 042020Z - 042215Z
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH
THE EARLY TO MID EVENING. WW NOT ANTICIPATED.
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ARE DRIVING
DEEPENING CUMULUS AND SMALL CB DEVELOPMENT ALONG DRY LINE FROM
W-CENTRAL TX ACROSS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE AT 20Z. MESOANALYSIS AT
20Z SUGGESTS CAP IS NOW ERODED NEAR THE OK/TX PANHANDLE BORDER WITH
MLCAPE FROM 1500-2000 J/KG ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. THIS SHOULD
AID ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
AREA PROFILERS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
REMAINS MARGINAL...BUT 25-30 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT
A FEW SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS/CLUSTERS AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF-LIVED
SUPERCELL THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL WITH
THE STRONGER CORES...UNSEASONABLY STRONG HEATING EAST OF THE DRY
LINE /TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S/ HAS STRENGTHENED LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS. DESPITE THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM...OVERALL COVERAGE/DURATION
OF ANY HAIL/WIND THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO WARRANT WW ATTM.
.EVANS.. 10/04/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...MAF...
36869924 35659925 32720102 32460266 34920124 36800037
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