SWODY1
SPC AC 041611
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1111 AM CDT THU OCT 04 2007
VALID 041630Z - 051200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS...
..AZ...
LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE IS BEGINNING TO AID IN DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AZ THIS MORNING AS IT LIFTS NEWD ACROSS
THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE EJECTING INTO
THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION AHEAD OF LARGER AMPLITUDE TROUGH DIGGING
SSEWD ALONG THE WEST COAST TODAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND OBSERVED
LAPSE RATES THIS MORNING REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED...BUT SHOULD
SUPPORT MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH HEATING TODAY. SWLY MID AND UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY IN RESPONSE TO
STRENGTHENING WEST COAST TROUGH AND INCREASE LOW AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR ACROSS AZ. THIS MAY SUPPORT A FEW LONGER-LIVED OR MORE
ORGANIZED STORMS AND ATTENDANT THREATS OF HAIL/STRONG DOWNDRAFTS...
INCLUDING AN ISOLATED...BRIEFLY SEVERE REPORT OR TWO.
..SRN HIGH PLAINS/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY...
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY MOVING NEWD INTO WRN
KS THIS MORNING WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. IN RESPONSE...SLY LLJ IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER
THE ERN PLAINS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MN INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE
LITTLE TODAY...AND MAY ACTUALLY RETREAT NWWD A BIT ALLOWING
UNSEASONABLY WARM/MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER THE SRN PLAINS TO
LIFT NWD INTO MID MO RIVER VALLEY BY LATE TODAY. APPEARS CAPPING
WILL REMAIN ROBUST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND MAY INHIBIT SURFACE BASED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OUTRIGHT DURING THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...12Z
RUC/GFS AND 09Z SREF/NAMKF INITIATE STORMS INTO N-CENTRAL KS/ERN NEB
LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING WHERE MLCAPE NEAR 1500 J/KG AND 25-35 KT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR SHOULD BE IN PLACE. ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT MAY ALSO
OCCUR INVOF WRN EDGE OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOIST AXIS INTO THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS WHERE STRONG HEATING MAY MIX THROUGH CAP. THUS...LOW
PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT REMAINS WARRANTED FROM PORTIONS OF WRN TX
INTO SWRN KS/OK PANHANDLE...WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL NNEWD
SUPPORTING CONDITIONAL SLIGHT RISK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. MOST LIKELY AREA FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR ABOVE A STABILIZING BOUNDARY
LAYER DURING THE EVENING AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT INTO FAR
SERN SD/NWRN IA/MN...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND
ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS.
.EVANS/GRAMS.. 10/04/2007
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