SWODY2
SPC AC 230521
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1221 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2011
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW MAY ACTUALLY RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY OVER NRN
IND/IL REGION WITH LARGE SCALE SUPPORT EXPECTED TO REMAIN FRAGMENTED
AND GENERALLY WEAK. PRE FRONTAL AIR MASS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS
WILL REMAIN QUITE MOIST WITH PWAT VALUES AOA 2 INCHES IN MOST
COASTAL REGIONS FROM FL/GA...NWD INTO SRN MD/DE. IN THE ABSENCE OF
STEEP LAPSE RATES IT APPEARS UPDRAFTS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY
WEAK...DESPITE THE DEEPER SHEAR THAT WOULD OTHERWISE POTENTIALLY AID
ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP IMMEDIATELY BENEATH THE
UPPER LOW FROM SRN MI...SWD INTO SERN MO. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND WANE IN THE ABSENCE OF DAYTIME HEATING.
OTHER HIGH BASED STORMS COULD ALSO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY FROM THE
LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...NWWD ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA
NEVADA MOUNTAINS. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH COOL MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL DRIFT ACROSS SRN CA DURING THE DAY WHICH WILL
ENSURE VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR
AT LEAST A FEW STORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
..DARROW.. 09/23/2011
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