SWODY3
SPC AC 310818
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0218 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2009
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...FL PENINSULA...
SRN STREAM SPEED MAX WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD
THE FL PENINSULA BEFORE EJECTING NEWD IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING UPPER
TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL INDUCE WEAK SFC CYCLOGENESIS ALONG E-W
FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE CNTRL GULF...WITH SUBSEQUENT MOVEMENT EAST
TOWARD THE CNTRL FL PENINSULA BY EARLY EVENING MONDAY. WHILE SHEAR
PROFILES WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY AHEAD OF THE LOW...SFC-6KM VALUES
APPROACHING 70KT...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT MARGINAL. MODELS SUGGEST SFC DEW POINTS
WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE INTO THE 60S. ADDITIONALLY...FORECAST LAPSE
RATES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK...YIELDING MINIMAL INSTABILITY FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. EVEN SO...CONVECTION SHOULD EVOLVE
ALONG/NORTH OF E-W SFC FRONT AHEAD OF LOW...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE
CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA. ACTIVITY...THOUGH STRONGLY
SHEARED...WILL LIKELY REMAIN TOO WEAK TO WARRANT A RISK OF ORGANIZED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IF INSTABILITY IS UNDERESTIMATED...MORE
ROBUST UPDRAFTS ARE POSSIBLE AND PERHAPS A RISK OF SEVERE.
..DARROW.. 01/31/2009
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