SWODY1
SPC AC 311257
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0657 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2009
VALID 311300Z - 011200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
W TO WNWLY LOW AMPLITUDE SPLIT FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE LWR 48
THIS PERIOD....IN WAKE OF TROUGH NOW EXITING THE ERN SEABOARD. A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE SRN STREAM /EXTENDING FROM NRN
BAJA CA ACROSS FAR NRN MEXICO INTO DEEP S TX/...IN CONJUNCTION WITH
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW ENTERING THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES...WILL SERVE TO STRENGTHEN LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW OVER THE
WRN GULF OF MEXICO AND SE TX.
...S TX/TX CSTL PLN...
BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
MODIFY TODAY AS SFC RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH ERN U.S. TROUGH CONTINUES
EWD. AT THE SAME TIME...AREA OF MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOW
LOCATED OVER WRN PARTS OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND OVER THE E CNTRL
MEXICAN CSTL PLN WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD N INTO SRN/SERN TX WITH
STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW.
SUSTAINED WAA AND UVV BENEATH SRN STREAM JET WILL SUPPORT A TREND
FOR INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY OVER
SRN/SE TX AS FAR N AS UPR TX CSTL PLN. BUT...GIVEN LIMITED QUALITY
OF WRN GULF MOISTURE /PER SATELLITE AND SFC DATA/ AND RELATIVELY
WEAK MID LVL LAPSE RATES...IT APPEARS THAT MOISTENING/
DESTABILIZATION WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT TSTMS PRIOR TO 12Z
SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...INHIBITION LIKELY WILL REMAIN TOO STRONG FOR
SFC-BASED STORMS IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS...ALTHOUGH CONVECTION MAY
BECOME DEEP ENOUGH FOR LIGHTNING NOT TOO LONG AFTER 12Z SUN OFF THE
MIDDLE TX CST.
..CORFIDI.. 01/31/2009
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