SWODY1
SPC AC 281608
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1108 AM CDT TUE SEP 28 2010
VALID 281630Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEAST UNITED STATES...
...NORTHEAST STATES...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS IN PLACE TODAY OVER THE EASTERN
STATES...WHILE A POWERFUL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES NORTHWARD AROUND
TROUGH ACROSS NY/PA. THE PRIMARY BAND OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL NY SOUTHWARD INTO DE/EASTERN MD WHERE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING. DESPITE
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WEAK LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED HEATING ARE
YIELDING WEAK INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO BE THE CASE ALL DAY...LIMITING OVERALL INTENSITY OF ACTIVITY.
NEVERTHELESS...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE VERY STRONG WITH 3KM SRH
VALUES OF 200-300 M2/S2 AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR EXCEEDING 50 KNOTS. THE
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST MOST OF THE DAY FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS OR BOW
ECHOES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS OR A BRIEF TORNADO.
FARTHER WEST...BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND STEEPENING LOW/MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE REDEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL PA/NY. THESE
STORMS WOULD ALSO POSE A RISK OF GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS PRIOR TO
SUNSET.
..HART/STOPPKOTTE.. 09/28/2010
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment