SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281750
NYZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-MAZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-281845-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1903
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 PM CDT TUE SEP 28 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...NJ TO SERN NY
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 686...
VALID 281750Z - 281845Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 686 CONTINUES.
MEAGER INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY IMPEDIMENT FOR
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE QUITE WEAK...ON THE
ORDER OF 5-5.5 C/KM. AS A RESULT...SHOWERS HAVE STRUGGLED TO ATTAIN
HEIGHTS NECESSARY FOR LIGHTNING...THOUGH A FEW ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS
HAVE EXHIBITED ROTATION AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY OVER SRN PORTIONS OF
WW686. GIVEN THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SRH VALUES...CAN NOT
RULE OUT A TORNADO OR DAMAGING WIND GUST UNTIL STRONGER FORCING/SFC
WIND SHIFT PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION.
..DARROW.. 09/28/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...
LAT...LON 42777576 42777320 39177350 39177594 42777576
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