SWODY3
SPC AC 190702
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0202 AM CDT TUE OCT 19 2010
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS SRN HIGH PLAINS...
...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...WRN CONUS REX PATTERN FCST TO BREAK DOWN AND
SHIFT EWD THROUGH PERIOD...AS CUT-OFF LOW NOW OFFSHORE SRN CA EJECTS
SLOWLY ENEWD ACROSS NM. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WARM FRONTAL ZONE
DESCRIBED IN DAY-2 OUTLOOK WILL BECOME VERY DIFFUSE AND PROBABLY
DISSIPATE ALTOGETHER OVER SRN HIGH PLAINS...WITH DRYLINE OVER LOWER
PECOS VALLEY/PERMIAN BASIN REGION. PAC COLD FRONT WILL PRECEDE
UPPER LOW EWD ACROSS NM...MOVING INTO TX PANHANDLE/SOUTH-PLAINS
REGIONS DURING LATTER HALF OF PERIOD. WEAK SFC LOW MAY FORM ALONG
THIS FRONT OVER NERN NM/SERN CO/NWRN PANHANDLES REGION DURING
22/00Z-22/06Z TIME FRAME. UNCERTAINTIES LINGER IN PROGS REGARDING
TIMING/STRENGTH OF LOW-LEVEL FEATURES...GIVEN SOME DIVERGENCE IN
TRACK PROGS OF MID-UPPER LOW...AND LIKELIHOOD OF CONVECTIVE
MODULATION OF SFC FRONT/DRYLINE.
...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
AS CYCLONE ALOFT SLOWLY APCHS SRN HIGH PLAINS...MOIST ADVECTION
WITHIN PARTIALLY MODIFIED RETURN-FLOW WILL OFFSET DIURNAL
HEATING/MIXING ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN PLUME OF MID-50S TO LOW-60S F SFC
DEW POINTS FROM ERN TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK REGION SWD ACROSS W-CENTRAL
TX...WITH PW AND MIXING-RATIO VALUES GENERALLY INCREASING SWD.
MEANWHILE...AS STRONGER MID-UPPER WINDS SHIFT EWD OVER THIS
PLUME...EXPECT INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE PROFILES FOR STG-SVR TSTMS
DURING AFTERNOON...INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS. FCST
SOUNDINGS REASONABLY DEPICT STG VEERING OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT IN
LOW-MIDDLE LEVELS...AND CURVING HODOGRAPHS...ESPECIALLY OVER
CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK AREA. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR MAY BE MODEST CAPE
RELATED TO LACK OF MORE ROBUST HEATING/LAPSE RATES...RELATED IN TURN
TO CLOUDINESS ALOFT...AS INDICATED BY HIGH RH PROGGED IN 250-400 MB
LAYER. HOWEVER...PRIND COMBINATION OF EVEN MODEST DIURNAL HEATING
AND FRONTAL/DRYLINE CONVERGENCE SHOULD OVERCOME CINH...CONCENTRATING
CONVECTION SUFFICIENTLY WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR TO WARRANT
CATEGORICAL-CRITERIA PROBABILITIES. 30-40 KT LLJ AND RELATED
MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAY SUSTAIN CONVECTION EWD TOWARD WRN OK...NW TX
AND PERHAPS SW KS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD BE WEAKER
WITH TIME AND EWD EXTENT.
SVR POTENTIAL BECOMES MORE MRGL/CONDITIONAL SWD ACROSS SW TX WITH
STRONGER CAPPING AND MORE NEBULOUS LIFT...WWD OVER NM WHERE
ANTECEDENT CLOUDS/PRECIP LIMIT HEATING...AND NWD OVER CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS WHERE MOISTURE IS WEAK.
..EDWARDS.. 10/19/2010
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