SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191846
CAZ000-192015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1955
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0146 PM CDT TUE OCT 19 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...INTERIOR SRN CA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 191846Z - 192015Z
A THREAT FOR HAIL SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS STORMS INCREASE
IN INTENSITY ACROSS INTERIOR SRN CA. THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN TOO
MARGINAL TO WARRANT WW ISSUANCE.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW ABOUT 160 STATUTE MILES
SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO WITH THE RUC ANALYZING A LOBE OF VORTICITY
EXTENDING EWD ACROSS SRN CA. THIS WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT WHICH COMBINED WITH CONTINUED SFC-HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN
INCREASING STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
MODERATE INSTABILITY IS ALREADY PRESENT WITH ANALYZED MLCAPE VALUES
IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF INTERIOR SRN CA. THIS
COMBINED WITH 30 TO 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR EVIDENT ON THE SRN CA
WSR-88D VWPS AND 500 MB TEMPS IN THE -16 TO -18C RANGE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING STORMS WITH HAIL POTENTIAL. THE MORE INTENSE
CELLS COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL BUT THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS
ONLY SUPPORTIVE OF A MARGINAL THREAT.
..BROYLES.. 10/19/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PSR...VEF...SGX...
LAT...LON 33321483 32881514 32481605 32751679 33761712 34271692
34531655 34601559 34231504 33321483
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment