DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 300714
SWODY3
SPC AC 300712

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0212 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...OH VALLEY...

LOWER MS VALLEY TROUGH WILL RELUCTANTLY SHIFT EAST DURING THE DAY3
PERIOD THOUGH A STRONG MID LEVEL SPEED MAX IS EXPECTED TO EJECT
ACROSS ERN TN TOWARD THE OH VALLEY DURING THE DAY. IN RESPONSE TO
THIS MID LEVEL FEATURE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODELS ALLOW LLJ...IN
VARYING DEGREES...TO EXTEND NWD ACROSS ERN KY INTO SRN OH WHICH
SHOULD ENCOURAGE MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER TO LIFT NORTH OF THE OH
RIVER. ALTHOUGH IT/S NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION
WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE OH VALLEY IT WOULD SEEM THAT ANY BREAKS IN
CLOUD COVER COULD ENHANCE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUCH THAT STRONGLY
SHEARED LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE. WILL INTRODUCE 5 PERCENT
SEVERE PROBS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY TO ACCOUNT FOR
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO THREAT.

DOWNSTREAM EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS...WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
AND A RECOVERING/MOISTENING AIRMASS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THAT STRONGER FORCING/DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE OH VALLEY WILL NOT EXTEND SEVERE PROBS
INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AT THIS TIME.

..DARROW.. 09/30/2012

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