DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 301710
SWODY2
SPC AC 301708

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1208 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND
ERN GULF COAST STATES NWD INTO SE TN AND FAR WRN NC...

...GULF COAST STATES/SE TN...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER ARKANSAS WILL OPEN AND MOVE SLOWLY
EWD ON MONDAY. A 40 TO 50 KT MID-LEVEL JET SOUTH OF THE LOW WILL
EJECT NNEWD ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR MONDAY AS A SFC LOW AND COLD
FRONT ADVANCE EWD INTO THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES. MODELS SHOW
MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE DEEPENING SFC
LOW WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S F ACROSS ERN
MS...AL AND GA. THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO BE ONGOING NORTH OF
THE LOW CENTER ALONG THE AXIS OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET SUNDAY MORNING.
FROM THE LOW SEWD...MODEL FORECASTS SHOW A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THIS LINE MOVING GRADUALLY EWD ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR IN ERN AL AND WRN GA
MONDAY AFTERNOON SHOW MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM
SHEAR AROUND 45 KT. IN ADDITION...LCL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO BE
NEAR 500 METERS WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR OF 25 TO 30 KT. THIS ENVIRONMENT
SHOULD SUPPORT ROTATING CELLS ELEMENTS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE OR
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. AS THE
ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE DAY...AN ISOLATED
TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON. WIND DAMAGE
COULD ALSO OCCUR WITH THE MORE INTENSE SEGMENTS OF THE LINE. THE
GREATEST TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY OCCUR SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NE AL
AND NW GA INTO SE TN WHERE LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE BACKED
TO THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES.

..BROYLES.. 09/30/2012

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