MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2008

ACUS11 KWNS 302050
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302050
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-302215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2008
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0350 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL NEB INTO WRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 302050Z - 302215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND MOVE TO THE S/SE. A SMALL WINDOW
FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND/HAIL WILL EXIST UNTIL SUNSET. CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THEREAFTER. A WW IS NOT EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF SFC TROUGH. TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...RESULTING IN STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1500 J/KG. GENERALLY WEAK DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AND LACK OF UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL LIMIT
COVERAGE/ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION. HOWEVER...AFOREMENTIONED STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST A LOW
CHANCE OF A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
IN STRONGEST CELLS. ANY MARGINAL THREAT IS ONLY EXPECTED TO LAST FOR
ABOUT 3-4 HOURS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIURNAL COOLING LEADS TO
BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION. A WW IS NOT EXPECTED.

..LEITMAN/HART.. 09/30/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...

LAT...LON 42960028 42769957 42289924 41529904 37679967 37229986
37120097 37270231 38530220 40400190 41810157 42770106
42960028

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