Sunday, September 30, 2012

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2009

ACUS11 KWNS 302134
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302133
TXZ000-NMZ000-302230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2009
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0433 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL NM AND THE TX PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 302133Z - 302230Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A WEAKLY ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF HIGH-BASED STORMS HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE NRN TX PANHANDLE.

DISCUSSION...21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS REFLECTS A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING ACROSS NERN NM...THE NW TX AND WRN TX PANHANDLE...WHERE A
WEAK COMPLEX OF HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS HAS INITIATED. GIVEN
MARGINAL MOISTURE AND MODEST DEEP LAYER FLOW...AN ORGANIZED THREAT
IS UNLIKELY. HOWEVER...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OWING TO DIURNAL
HEATING/MIXING MAY SUPPORT ENHANCED DOWNDRAFT WINDS AS STORMS
QUICKLY COLLAPSE. WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT...HAIL
PRODUCTION IS POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONGER CORES.

..HURLBUT/CORFIDI.. 09/30/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

LAT...LON 35030450 35570297 36080142 36070046 35680021 34960065
34560177 34240264 34050349 34340460 35030450

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