SWODY1
SPC AC 090055
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0655 PM CST SAT NOV 08 2008
VALID 090100Z - 091200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
PATTERN TRANSITION IS UNDERWAY ALOFT AS LARGE MID-UPPER CYCLONE --
INITIALLY CENTERED OVER NRN LH -- CONTINUES TO EJECT NEWD TOWARD
ADJOINING PORTIONS ONT. STG LOW LEVEL RIDGING IN WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL KEEP APPRECIABLE MOISTURE FROM RETURNING TO PLAINS
STATES FROM GULF AND WILL KEEP POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS MINIMIZED E OF
ROCKIES. MEANWHILE...STG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT IN MOISTURE
CHANNEL IMAGERY MOVING ASHORE NRN CA. THIS TROUGH IS FCST TO
CONTINUE DIGGING SEWD ACROSS CA THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD...MOVING
ACROSS SIERRAS. NRN BRANCH OF THIS TROUGH -- WITH SEPARATE MIDLEVEL
VORTICITY LOBE -- IS FCST TO MOVE INLAND WA MORE SLOWLY.
...WRN CONUS...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS PACIFIC NW SWD ACROSS PORTIONS NRN CA AND NRN GREAT BASIN
DURING REMAINDER PERIOD. LARGE SCALE ASCENT/DESTABILIZATION
ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED TROUGHS WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT
COOLING ALOFT...JUXTAPOSED WITH AREAS OF HIGH LOW LEVEL RH -- SO
THAT PARCELS CAN REACH LFC WITH MUCAPES BELOW 400 J/KG IN MOST
AREAS. MOST VIGOROUS CELLS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AMIDST COOLING
TRENDS ALOFT AND 30-35 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES. LACK OF
MORE ROBUST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY EXPECTED FOR REMAINDER PERIOD
INDICATES SVR THREAT IS TOO ISOLATED/CONDITIONAL TO MAINTAIN AOA
5-PERCENT PROBABILITIES.
..EDWARDS.. 11/09/2008
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