DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 270851
SWOD48
SPC AC 270850

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0350 AM CDT THU SEP 27 2012

VALID 301200Z - 051200Z

...DISCUSSION...
LATEST RUNS OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS SHOW DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH BOTH SHOWING THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST BEGINNING TO SHIFT NEWD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND DAY 4 /SUN.
9-30/...AND THEN OUT OF THE U.S. AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THROUGH DAY 5 /MON. 10-1/. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE TOWARD A
FAST/ZONAL FLOW FIELD OVER THE NRN CONUS...AND WEAK/NONDESCRIPT OVER
THE SRN HALF TO 2/3 OF THE COUNTRY.

THIS PATTERN SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH DAY 6 /TUE. 10-2/...AFTER WHICH
MODELS DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO SOME AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW FIELD
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

VERY LITTLE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EVIDENT THROUGH DAY 5...GIVEN THE
ZONAL FLOW/LACK OF AMPLITUDE. A COLD FRONT MAY BEGIN TO SHIFT SEWD
INTO THE N CENTRAL CONUS...BUT WITH THE LIKELIHOOD FOR VERY LIMITED
MOISTURE AND THUS LACK OF INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM...SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS NOT APPARENT.

..GOSS.. 09/27/2012

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