MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1999

ACUS11 KWNS 272010
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272009
NEZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-272115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1999
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0309 PM CDT THU SEP 27 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...NW/W-CNTRL NM...FAR WRN TX/OK PANHANDLES

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 272009Z - 272115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS. INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
RATHER LOW BUT FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES MAY SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE
TSTMS. ADDITIONALLY...A COUPLE TORNADOES/LANDSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING COVERAGE/STRENGTH OF TSTMS BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL WW.

DISCUSSION...LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING UPPER
LEVEL LOW...OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS...AND DAYTIME HEATING ARE EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM NW/W-CNTRL NM NWD INTO ERN
CO WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR TO TWO. 19Z MESOANALYSIS REVEALS THAT LITTLE
TO NO MLCINH REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA AND MLCAPE IS NEAR 500 J/KG.
ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE BASAL PORTION OF THE UPPER LOW
HAS HELPED INCREASE BULK SHEAR AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS GENERALLY
AROUND 25 TO 30 KT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR WEAKLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND LOW-END SEVERE
HAIL.

ALSO OF NOTE IS AN AREA THE ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY /A RESULT
OF THE INCREASED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SFC CYCLOGENESIS/ AMONGST
MODESTLY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEPICTED BY MESOANALYSIS ACROSS
THE FRONT RANGE IN CO. AS A RESULT...A FEW TORNADOES/LANDSPOUTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TSTM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY PRECLUDES HIGHER
WATCH PROBABILITIES BUT THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL
WW.

..MEAD/MOSIER.. 09/27/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON 37780492 39000490 39710504 40350498 40900423 40710205
39660175 37440202 36590219 34830267 33940424 35130546
37780492

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