SWODY1
SPC AC 180049
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0749 PM CDT WED MAR 17 2010
VALID 180100Z - 181200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER AIR PATTERN THROUGH PERIOD WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY SPLIT FLOW
OVER ERN CONUS...WITH LARGE FETCH OF CYCLONIC FLOW FROM CENTRAL
PLAINS TO FL TO CAROLINAS. PRIMARY/ANCHORING CYCLONE -- CENTER OF
WHICH CURRENTLY IS INDICATED IN SATELLITE/RAOB/VWP DATA OVER NERN
GA/NWRN SC -- IS FCST TO DRIFT ERRATICALLY NEAR PRESENT LOCATION.
MEANWHILE...SECONDARY UPPER LOW -- INITIALLY ANALYZED INVOF FSM --
WILL PIVOT SSEWD TOWARD LA COAST AND EVOLVE INTO STG/OPEN-WAVE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
AT SFC...CYCLONE ALREADY EVIDENT OFFSHORE NRN FL SHOULD DEEPEN AND
MOVE SLOWLY NNEWD OVER ATLANTIC WATERS WELL OFFSHORE GA. RELATED
SFC FRONTS...STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL WAA CONVEYOR...AND ANY TSTMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THOSE FEATURES...WILL REMAIN AWAY FROM COAST.
ELSEWHERE...SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER SRN BC AND JUST OFFSHORE ORE
COAST WILL MOVE ESEWD TO NRN MT AND ERN ORE/NERN CA
RESPECTIVELY...THROUGH 12Z. WHILE VERY BRIEF/ISOLATED THUNDER
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY INVOF ZONE OF STRONGEST MIDLEVEL DPVA
PRECEDING OR TROUGH...LACK OF GREATER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SHOULD
PRECLUDE ENOUGH TSTM THREAT TO KEEP ANY AOA 10% UNCONDITIONAL
PROBABILITIES OVER WRN CONUS.
..EDWARDS.. 03/18/2010
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