SWODY1
SPC AC 171252
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0752 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2008
VALID 171300Z - 181200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MAIN BELT OF THE WLYS WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO SRN CANADA THIS
PERIOD...ALONG FRINGE OF LARGE/STRONG VORTEX OVER NRN QUEBEC/NRN
HUDSON BAY. TO THE SOUTH...WEAK RIDGE WILL PREVAIL FROM THE ERN GRT
BASIN AND RCKYS INTO THE LWR OH AND LWR MS VLYS. SATELLITE AND VWP
DATA SUGGEST THAT SRN PART OF WEAK TROUGH DRIFTING E ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS IS AMPLIFYING ATTM OVER AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE. THIS
FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE E INTO GA BY EVE...AND OFF THE GA/SC CST
EARLY THURSDAY.
...S GA/FL...
WEAK NE/SW FRONT NOW OVER SE GA/N FL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SETTLING
SLOWLY S ACROSS THE REGION AS AFOREMENTIONED UPR TROUGH CONTINUES
EWD. WEAK LOW TO MID LVL FLOW AND MODERATE TO STRONG SFC HEATING
SHOULD SUPPORT RELATIVELY STRONG SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS OVER THE FL
PENINSULA TODAY. CONVERGENCE ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES...AND
...TO A LESSER EXTENT...ALONG THE FRONT...SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD AFTN STORMS. ALTHOUGH MODEST LOW TO MID LVL FLOW SHOULD
LIMIT STORM SUSTENANCE AND ORGANIZATION...INCREASED UVV /MAINLY IN
THE FORM OF UPR LVL DIVERGENCE/ AND STRENGTHENING HIGH LVL FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLIFYING UPR TROUGH MAY YIELD A FEW STORMS WITH
BRIEFLY SVR WIND/HAIL. MOTION OF STORM CLUSTERS MAY BE DOMINATED BY
PROPAGATION AND...IF SO...THIS WOULD BE TOWARD THE SSW DESPITE WLY
MEAN FLOW.
...WRN CONUS...
LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NNE ACROSS LWR CO VLY/FOUR
CORNERS REGION. COUPLED WITH SFC HEATING AND CONTINUING PRESENCE OF
WEAK DISTURBANCES ON WRN FRINGE OF UPR RIDGE...SETUP WILL SUPPORT
SCTD MAINLY DIURNAL STORMS. SOMEWHAT COOLER MID LVL TEMPERATURES
/-12 TO -14 C AT 500 MB/ WILL EXIST N OF WEAK ZONAL SRN STREAM JET
OVER AZ. THIS MAY ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO AN AREA OR TWO OF MORE
CONCENTRATED STORMS FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO ERN UT/WRN CO.
SPARSE MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN LIMIT DEGREE OF INSTABILITY/STORM
STRENGTH.
FARTHER NW...MID-LVL MOISTENING AND ASCENT/COOLING AHEAD OF THE
WEAKENING TROUGH OVER NRN CA SHOULD SUPPORT DIURNALLY-ENHANCED
HIGH-BASED TCU/CBS FROM SRN/ERN ORE INTO PARTS OF NV/ID.
...SRN GRT LK...
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK IMPULSE IN STRONGER FLOW ACROSS
ONTARIO/QUEBEC WILL MOVE SE INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VLY AND LWR LKS BY
LATE IN THE DAY. CONVERGENCE ALONG BOUNDARY MAY SPARK A FEW DIURNAL
SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS. BUT MODEST MID LVL LAPSE RATES...LIMITED
MOISTURE...AND WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT SUGGEST POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG STORMS WILL BE LOW.
..CORFIDI/CROSBIE.. 09/17/2008
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