MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2050

ACUS11 KWNS 132326
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132326
KSZ000-140030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2050
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0626 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 663...

VALID 132326Z - 140030Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 663
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR STRONG-SVR WIND GUSTS AND HAIL...AND PERHAPS
A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO...WILL PERSIST ACROSS CNTRL KS...AND SLOWLY
SPREAD EWD TOWARDS ERN KS LATER THIS EVENING. LOCAL WFO/S MAY
CONSIDER REMOVING COUNTIES FROM WW 663 IN THE WAKE OF THE
DRYLINE/PACIFIC COLD FRONT ACROSS CNTRL KS.

DISCUSSION...A NOTABLE INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE HAS OCCURRED WITHIN
THE PAST COUPLE HRS /MAINLY ACROSS N-CNTRL KS/ AS STRONGER FORCING
FOR ASCENT HAS DEVELOPED IN ASSOCIATION WITH DPVA/MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
FALLS AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER WRN KS. THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SFC LOW /ANALYZED W
OF SLN/ AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT/DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD ACROSS CNTRL
KS. THIS AREA IS ALSO ALIGNED JUST W OF A LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
AXIS...AND AMPLE DAYTIME HEATING FROM EARLIER TODAY HAS RESULTED IN
SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION TO SUPPORT OCCASIONAL SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES AND SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS. THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS. A
NON-ZERO TORNADO RISK MAY ALSO EXIST GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /E.G. 25-30 KTS PER TWX VWP DATA/.

WITH TIME...SFC LOW AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EWD IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE EWD PROGRESSING UPPER TROUGH. WEAKER
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT ACROSS ERN KS DUE TO A COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER
AS CLOUD COVER HAS PERSISTED MOST OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...18Z NAM AND
21Z RAP FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MINIMAL CINH WILL BE
PRESENT BEYOND SUNSET AS THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTS
EWD...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SFC-BASED CONVECTION. WITH
LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN...A CONTINUED
RISK OF ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS SHOULD PERSIST...WITH A LESSER
THREAT FOR HAIL AND A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO STILL POSSIBLE.

..ROGERS.. 10/13/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...

LAT...LON 37049668 37019755 37109830 38189822 38959842 39509815
39869743 39919659 39829615 39179557 37669611 37049668

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