MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2049

ACUS11 KWNS 132043
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132042
TXZ000-132215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2049
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0342 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...CONCHO VALLEY/EDWARDS PLATEAU OF TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 662...

VALID 132042Z - 132215Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 662
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT HAS BEEN MINIMAL THUS FAR...IT
SHOULD INCREASE AS ISOLATED TSTMS LIKELY BECOME SUSTAINED ALONG THE
TRAILING PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT NEAR THE LOWER TRANS-PECOS AND
ALONG THE MOUNTAINS OF COAHUILA.

DISCUSSION...20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE
PACIFIC COLD FRONT FROM NWRN TX SWWD TO THE BIG BEND. SEVERAL
CONVECTIVE ATTEMPTS HAVE OCCURRED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...WITH CELLS
ALONG THE PECOS/CROCKETT COUNTY BORDER AND IN REAGEN COUNTY
APPEARING TO HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY TO BECOMING SUSTAINED.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS INTENSIFYING S OF VAL VERDE COUNTY ADJACENT
TO THE MOUNTAINS OF COAHUILA.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES DOWNSTREAM OF THESE CORRIDORS HAVE WARMED INTO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S...CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG.
ALTHOUGH THE REGION IS ONLY BEING GLANCED BY MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS VEERED SLIGHTLY IN AREA VWP DATA...THE
CONTINUED STRONG HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUSTAINING A
COUPLE OF STORMS. AMIDST 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR...ISOLATED
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH RISKS OF SEVERE HAIL/WIND ARE STILL
ANTICIPATED.

..GRAMS.. 10/13/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON 32230101 32260054 31910012 31440004 31000025 30280044
29640020 28959987 28599986 28340002 28260021 29730229
30630230 32230101

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