MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2047

ACUS11 KWNS 131900
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131900
KSZ000-OKZ000-132030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2047
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0200 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 131900Z - 132030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST TO OCCUR
THIS AFTERNOON OVER CNTRL KS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE. A WW MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED DURING THE NEXT HR OR
TWO.

DISCUSSION...MESOANALYSIS AT 18Z SHOWS AN AREA OF WEAK SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SITUATED OVER SWRN KS...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD
FROM THE LOW INTO FAR WRN OK. SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ARE OCCURRING
OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF AN EJECTING UPPER TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS. THESE FALLS WILL FAVOR MODEST DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE
LOW AS IT MOVES NEWD TOWARD THE NEB BORDER BY EVENING.
MEANWHILE...CLEARING SKIES ARE ALLOWING SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVER
CNTRL KS TO WARM INTO THE MID 70S...WHILE SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS
MAINTAINING MID 60S DEWPOINTS. THIS AIRMASS COMBINED WITH MODERATELY
STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES/COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT IS AIDING IN
MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG. STRONG MIDLEVEL SWLYS /50-70 KT/
AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH ARE ALSO CONTRIBUTING TOWARD EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR VALUES NEAR 60 KT. GIVEN THE DEVELOPMENT OF TOWERING
CUMULUS OBSERVED IN LATEST VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY...THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION APPEARS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONG
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATE CAPE WILL FAVOR LINE SEGMENTS AND A
FEW SUPERCELLS. THE PRIMARY SVR WEATHER THREAT WITH THESE STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL...THOUGH AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS WELL.

..GARNER/THOMPSON.. 10/13/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...

LAT...LON 37080036 37970041 39539912 39879690 39039630 37299749
36959874 37080036

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