MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2044

ACUS11 KWNS 130706
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130706
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-130830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2044
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0206 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...TX AND OK PANHANDLES THROUGH SWRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 130706Z - 130830Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A MODEST THREAT FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND
PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL PERSIST THROUGH 09Z. AT THIS
TIME SEVERE THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A WW.

DISCUSSION...THIS MORNING A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE NRN TX
PANHANDLE THROUGH NRN OK AND SERN KS. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW 60S HAVE ADVECTED INTO THE NRN PART OF THE WARM SECTOR
SUPPORTING 1000 J/KG MUCAPE FOR PARCELS LIFTED FROM ABOVE THE
NOCTURNAL INVERSION. HOWEVER...THE SFC LAYER HAS COOLED AND
STABILIZED WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 60S.

STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE DEVELOPING NEXT FEW HOURS FROM THE TX AND OK
PANHANDLES INTO SWRN KS IN ASSOCIATION WITH DEEPER ASCENT
ACCOMPANYING A VORT MAX LIFTING NEWD THROUGH NERN NM WITHIN ERN
PERIPHERY OF UPPER LOW CIRCULATION. TENDENCY WILL BE FOR THIS BAND
OF ASCENT TO SHIFT NEWD AWAY FROM THE WARM SECTOR WITH TIME...WHICH
IN CONJUNCTION WITH A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGEST FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION OF EXISTING STORMS IS NOT LIKELY. NEVERTHELESS...A
FEW STORMS MAY REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL NEXT COUPLE HOURS.

..DIAL/MEAD.. 10/13/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...ABQ...

LAT...LON 34860202 35410313 38029983 37569875 36399984 35100064
34860202

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